Agent-based HPV + cervical disease modeling · Built on Starsim
HPVsim
HPVsim is an agent-based model of HPV transmission and progression through cervical disease to cancer. It supports country-specific vital dynamics, structured sexual networks, co-transmitting HPV genotypes, B- and T-cell mediated immunity, and high-resolution disease natural history, plus built-in tools for vaccination, screening, and treatment interventions. It is implemented in pure Python, extensively tested and documented, and runs in seconds to minutes on a laptop.
v3.0 (released July 2026) is built on the Starsim architecture and is the actively developed line. The pre-Starsim v2.3 release (April 2026) is frozen aside from critical bugfixes.
pip install hpvsim
Research
The HPVsim model has been applied to answer questions that broadly fall into four main research themes.
HPVsim: an agent-based model of HPV and cervical disease
The core methods paper describing HPVsim's agent-based model of HPV transmission, natural history, and progression to cervical disease, and the open-source software that implements it.
The role of single-dose HPV vaccination in expanding access
Sixteen country-specific HPVsim models quantify how much single-dose HPV vaccination schedules — endorsed by WHO in 2022 — have already expanded access across Gavi-supported countries facing vaccine supply constraints.
Can pruning improve calibration for agent-based models?
Tests whether pruning — discarding unpromising parameter sets partway through a calibration run — can speed up HPVsim calibration without degrading fit quality.
HPV DNA screening and vaccination strategies in Tunisia
A cost-effectiveness analysis comparing HPV DNA-based cervical screening strategies against the existing Pap-smear approach, both layered on top of Tunisia's 2025 school-based HPV vaccination program for girls aged 11-12.
Inferring HPV natural history from global cancer registries
A 30-country calibration exercise across Sub-Saharan Africa asking whether the observed differences in cervical cancer age distributions can be explained without varying HPV natural-history parameters.
HIV, antiretroviral therapy, and cervical cancer burden in Zambia
Models how HIV prevalence and antiretroviral therapy coverage shape cervical cancer burden in Zambia, where women living with HIV face substantially elevated risk.
Infant HPV prophylactic vaccination in Nigeria
Evaluates a model-based case for an infant HPV prophylactic vaccination program in Nigeria, alongside the standard adolescent schedule.
Extending vaccination to older cohorts
Explores extending HPV vaccination catch-up campaigns to older age cohorts, and the resulting transmission-blocking effect on top of the direct protection benefit.
Accelerating cervical cancer elimination in Rwanda
Compares strategies to accelerate cervical cancer elimination in Rwanda — from strengthened screening and treatment pathways to mass campaigns with novel therapeutic vaccines — building on Rwanda's already high HPV vaccination coverage.
England screening and treatment strategies
Forthcoming work modeling cervical screening and treatment strategy options for England.
Countries
HPVsim has been calibrated to numerous country contexts, some of which have been part of multi-country studies and others which are in-depth focused analyses looking at informing policy. Not all of these have been published, but the table below has details on how you can get more information about a particular country.
| Country | Model/analysis details | Partners | Publications | Code/data |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Angola |
Gates Foundation
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| Bangladesh |
Gavi, Gates Foundation
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| Benin |
Gates Foundation
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| Burkina Faso |
Gavi, Gates Foundation Gates Foundation
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| Burundi |
Gates Foundation
|
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| Cambodia |
Gavi, Gates Foundation
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| Cameroon |
Gavi, Gates Foundation Gates Foundation
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| Chad |
Gates Foundation
|
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| Congo |
Gates Foundation
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| Côte d'Ivoire |
Gavi, Gates Foundation Gates Foundation
|
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| DR Congo |
Gates Foundation
|
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| England |
—
|
University of Oxford
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—
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—
|
| Ethiopia |
Gavi, Gates Foundation Gates Foundation
|
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| Gabon |
Cervical cancer burden and screening/vaccination scenarios
|
LSHTM, Gabon Ministry of Health
|
—
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| Gambia |
Gavi, Gates Foundation
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| Ghana |
Gates Foundation
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| Guinea |
Gates Foundation
|
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| India |
National Disease Modeling Consortium
|
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| Kazakhstan |
Cervical cancer burden model
|
LSHTM
|
—
|
|
| Kenya |
Gates Foundation
|
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| Lao PDR |
Gavi, Gates Foundation
|
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| Madagascar |
Gates Foundation
|
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| Malawi |
Gates Foundation
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| Mali |
Gavi, Gates Foundation Gates Foundation
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| Mozambique |
Gavi, Gates Foundation Gates Foundation
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| Myanmar |
Gavi, Gates Foundation
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| Nepal |
Gavi, Gates Foundation
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| Niger |
Gates Foundation
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| Nigeria |
Gavi, Gates Foundation Gates Foundation Gates Foundation, Nnamdi Azikiwe University, Awka, Nigeria
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—
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| Rwanda |
Gates Foundation Albert Einstein College of Medicine, Einstein-Rwanda Research and Capacity Building Program, International Agency for Research on Cancer (IARC/WHO), Gates Foundation
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—
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| Senegal |
Gates Foundation
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| Sierra Leone |
Gavi, Gates Foundation Gates Foundation
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| Somalia |
Gates Foundation
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| South Africa |
Gates Foundation
|
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| South Sudan |
Gates Foundation
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| Tanzania |
Gavi, Gates Foundation Gates Foundation
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| Togo |
Gavi, Gates Foundation Gates Foundation
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| Tunisia |
Pasteur Institute of Tunis
|
—
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| Uganda |
Gates Foundation
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| Zambia |
Gavi, Gates Foundation Gates Foundation University of Bern, Centre for Infectious Disease Research in Zambia, SACEMA, Gates Foundation
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| Zimbabwe |
Gates Foundation
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News
-
2026-07-24
HPVsim v3.0 released ↗
HPVsim v3.0 is out, rebuilt on the Starsim modeling architecture. The v2.3 line is now frozen aside from critical bugfixes.
-
2026-05-28
Presentation at the HPV Board meeting, Antwerp
Presented on the role of single-dose HPV vaccination in expanding access during a period of supply constraints, at the HPV Board meeting in Antwerp.
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2026-03-19
Presentation at EUROGIN 2026 on HPV vaccination in adults
Presented on HPV vaccination in adults, part of the ongoing work on extending vaccination access to older cohorts.
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2026-02-23
New Yorker covers single-dose HPV vaccination ↗
The New Yorker's coverage of the case for single-dose HPV vaccination cites our analysis of Gavi-supported countries' rollout.
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2025-11-30
Poster at EPIDEMICS 10, San Diego
Presented on strategies to accelerate cervical cancer elimination in Rwanda, at the 10th International Conference on Infectious Disease Dynamics.
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2025-10-25
Two presentations at IPVC 2025, Bangkok
Presented on extending vaccination to older cohorts (transmission-blocking effects) and on a model-based case for infant HPV vaccination in Nigeria, at the 37th Annual Conference of the International Papillomavirus Society.
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2024-07-29
Quantium Health receives multi-year funding to apply HPVsim ↗
Quantium Health (South Africa) receives multi-year Gates Foundation funding to apply HPVsim modeling to inform national HPV immunization programs and health policy across South Africa, Tanzania, and Nigeria.
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2024-03-13
Presentation at EUROGIN 2024, Stockholm
Presented on the development and dissemination of HPVsim as open-source software for HPV modeling.
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2023-11-28
Poster at EPIDEMICS9, Bologna
Presented a multi-country calibration study inferring the natural history of HPV from global cancer registries, at the 9th International Conference on Infectious Disease Dynamics.
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2023-05-23
Presentation at IDM Symposium 2023, Seattle
Presented the multi-country calibration exercise inferring HPV natural history from global cancer registries.
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2023-02-10
Presentation at EUROGIN 2023, Bilbao
Introduced HPVsim as a new tool for rapid assessments of intervention impact on the pathway towards global cervical cancer elimination.