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REGISTRY-CALIB · Peer-reviewed

Inferring HPV natural history from global cancer registries

A 30-country calibration exercise across Sub-Saharan Africa asking whether the observed differences in cervical cancer age distributions can be explained without varying HPV natural-history parameters.

Key findings

  • A single shared natural-history parameter set cannot fit all 30 countries' cervical cancer age distributions.
  • Adding one per-country "immunocompromise" parameter, calibrated separately, achieves a good fit across all 30 countries.
  • Derives multi-country estimates of HPV clearance and cancer probabilities over time from the calibrated models.

Outputs

At a glance

Themes
Calibration methods Natural history
Setting
30 countries, Sub-Saharan Africa

Related study

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